Thursday 27 June 2013

220 newmarket saturday. The listed Empress stakes for 2yo fillies



                                      The bet 365 Empress Stakes [listed for 2yo fillies]


this looks a cracking contest with a couple of fillies, who are having there sights lowered following creditable runs at the royal meeting, taking on a few unexposed types who are stepping up in class.  A twelve runner contest in which the majority of the field seem to hold chances of varying degrees.

Disko- consistent filly, runner up in her first two starts, who benefited from a crafty ride from her criminally underused kiwi jockey James Mcdonald last time at Lingfield. Drawn one her jockey managed to get over to the golden highway next to rail before dictating the race winning by a routine length from Tautira. The runner up has since let the form down with a lacklustre display at Newcastle. Although the stable are in decent nick and have the benefit of Macdonald again here, she will have to improve quite a chunk if she is to take this contest

Fig Roll- by Bahamian Bounty out of the same connections decent juvenile Cake. Has done little wrong in her four runs so far, culminating in a fine fourth place in the Queen Mary at the royal meeting. Unlucky on debut at Kempton she then won a decent contest at Salisbury, before heading to Naas, to contest a listed race won by the stables star filly Sky Lantern the year before, where she finished a creditable third to Albany runner up Sandiva. The undoubted form choice, just a nagging doubt that this may come a touch soon after Ascot

Hoku- well thought of filly from the in form Olly Stevens yard. Went off a strong 2/1 favourite on debut at Windsor where she finished a decent third having been slowly away and looking very green in the early part of the race. That form has worked out well with the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 8th having all won since. She then went on to York for a listed contest running a fine race when finding only Beldale Memory, who went off 4/1 favourite when down the field in the Queen Mary, too good. Has a bit to find on the bare form, but does have the benefit of coming into this contest fresh having skipped the Royal meeting. Not without a chance for her promising handler

Jive- exposed filly who won a weak maiden at Lingfield last time, runner up has since won an even weaker Brighton maiden, at the fourth time of asking. Is the Hannon second string here and will have to step up massively on all know form to go close in this

Lady Chantilly- unbeaten filly for a trainer jockey combination who always worth a second look in two year old races, although possibly not so much in this exalted grade. Got up to beat Sunset Shore,winner since, on debut at Warwick over five furlongs. Slowly away that day, she was pushed along before the penny dropped ,getting up on the line to win a neck. Improvement should be forthcoming on her second start and over the extra furlong but would still be an unlikely winner

Lady Lydia- owned by former trainer Vince Smith and hailing from the Michael Wigham stable who are not renowned for the prowess in this sphere. However this one was noticeably short on debut for a strong maiden at HQ. She finished 12th that day but beaten only 4.75 lengths, didn't have to improve to lose the maiden next time before running a creditable second to the useful Justice Day in a Newmarket novices stakes. Has ability, but doubtful if enough to take this

Love In The Desert- third, when looking a touch unlucky, in a very decent maiden on debut at Sandown, she made no mistake when favourite next time out at Thirsk. That looked a decent maiden for the track and the second and third are useful yardsticks. Her literal form with Wind Fire and Survived would put her right in the mix here and could go well at a decent price

Majeyda- a Street Cry filly out of the group three winning Alzerra for the Godolphin team. Looked mightily impressive on debut when readily besting Elusive Quality, who had already shown a useful level of form. The trainers juveniles are always to be feared at this track and the Jockey rides the July course particularly well- 29% strike rate for a level stakes profit of £27.13. Although has a bit to find on the ratings with Fig Roll it is very possible she will improve past that one on second start. It is my belief she is the one to beat

Rough Courte- Mick Channon inmate who improved on her first three runs when a nose second to Ventura Mist, reopposes here, at Thirsk. Looked completely exposed prior to that run and will do well to break the maiden in this company.

Sunny Harbour- an intriguing runner for the upwardly mobile David O Meara stable. This cheaply bought yearling positively bolted up on debut at Redcar. Although not a strong race the runner up has shown decent form and the third has since won a Ripon maiden easily. Wasn't fancied in the betting-SP of 16/1- that day and although the trainer has had a decent season with his juveniles it is still a slight shock when his win first time out. They have booked the services of Ryan Moore for this contest which suggests they are expecting a good run. Will be interesting to see how she goes in the market and if strong may have a chance

Sweet Alibi- cheap purchase owned and trained by Stan Moore who has shown nothing in her three runs so far that suggests she is up to this grade. Confidently ruled out

Ventura Mist-  A filly who has been kept busy by connections this being her 5th run of the season. Has performed with credit each time. Running third on her first two runs, she broke the maiden edging out the aforementioned Rough Courte at Thirsk. Stepped up on those runs when taking the Hilary Needler at Beverley, coming with a late rattle to chin Lexington Rose, winner since, on the line. Then went to Ascot running a decent race beaten 5.5 lengths by Rizeena in the Queen Mary. An admirable sort who has form claims, it is just a worry that her busy season may catch up with her before long

Verdict- Fig Roll certainly brings the best form to the table but having ran at Ascot only Ten days before she may be vulnerable to a more lightly raced Filly. The obvious candidate would be the Godolphin owned Majeyda who looked very impressive when flooring an odds on shot at Leicester on debut. Of the rest it would be no surprise to see either Hoku or Love in the Desert improve enough to go close

1 Majeyda
2 Hoku
3 Love In The Desert


Tuesday 25 June 2013

220 Salisbury Wednesday 26th June



                                 British Stallions Stud E.B.F Ashbrittle Stud Maiden Fillies'


Possibly the best looking maiden on a busy day for the juveniles, this fillies contest houses some promising sorts who have already shown varying degrees of promise. Which gives a fair target to the four newcomers involved

Chutney- Exceed and Excel filly who is related to five winners, the best of which was Auld Burns, who showed decent form in the UK at two and won the Tattersalls 3YO trophy before a transfer to Australia where he showed decent form for the the David Hayes team. Started off in a very hot HQ market- first two showed decent form at Royal Ascot, the third was an impressive maiden winner at Ayr on second start- finishing 9th of 11 beaten just over 6 lengths at 16/1. Whilst this represents a drop in class, and connections are always feared in these events, i feel there are enough question marks to pass her over today

Dizzy Miss Lizzy- A half sister to Wake Up Little Suzy, by Peintre Celebre, who won a modest Wolverhampton 7 furlong maiden at 3 for Marco Botti. Whilst this one is bred to be a bit sharper, being by Verglas, this does look a warm heat. Looks on jockey bookings to be the Hannon second string and will have to be useful to strike on debut here

Meeting Waters- a £45,000 purchase from a family chock full of speed. A half sister to 5 furlong winners Princess Banu and Exotic Isle, both of whom were successful at 2, her Dam was a listed winner at 6 furlongs. Whilst the jury is still out on Aqlaam as a source of winners in these events, this one ran a promising debut when second at Sandown, behind Richard Hannon's Biography. Travelled well on that occasion but was just unable to reach the winner, who had the run of the race from the front. From a trainer who is doing very well with his Juvenile team this year and with the best Jockey in the land on his back. Might need a furlong further before long but every chance of being good enough to take this

Paradise Isle- Bill Turner filly who has looked modest in 2 runs so far, being well beaten at big odds on both occasions. Would be a shock winner of this

Spider Lily-  Not badly bred being out of a dam who won 2 races, including on debut, for this trainer who has produced 3 sprint winners from her 4 living foals. However hails from a stable who are not noted for success in this sphere and this £500 purchase looks an unlikely winner.

Stellarta- By Sakhee's Secret out of a Cherry Hinton winning mare who has proved a disappointment at stud. The stable has a poor strike rate in juvenile races but this one hasn't been devoid of promise having been placed in a pair of Kempton maidens, running to a similar level of ability both times. Will likely have to improve on those displays to take a hand at the finish here

Trinity River- Modestly bred Three Valleys debutant from the Daniel Kubler stable who will be an outsider to take this. The trainer has had one decent juvenile this year in the form of Disko, who has registered a victory and a brace of seconds but that is his only two year old to hit the frame in his short training career so far. Would probably have to eclipse Disko's form to win this on debut. A likely roughie here

Warm Order- Another debutant from a yard who aren't renowned for their success in this sphere. By Assertive out a banded level mare. Will not be winning this

Weisse Socken- A £42,000 Acclamation filly who has ran well in her two runs to date. Missed what looked a golden chance on debut when second to Cafetiere at odds on. Before running a creditable third in a strong for the track Thirsk maiden. Her trainer has had a pretty lean time of it with his two year old's so far this term and although the highest rated on RPRs will likely find one or two too good

Verdict- Meeting Waters come's from a family full of speed and ran a promising race on debut at Sandown. With the benefit of that experience and with the assistance from Ryan Moore in the saddle again, i expect her to go one better and take this decent looking contest. Chutney can be expected to improve from debut and she rates the main danger

1 Meeting Waters
2 Chutney
3 Weisse Socken


Friday 21 June 2013

The Chesham Stakes


The Chesham Stakes is a two year old listed contest for horses sired by Stallions that have won over one mile two furlongs. It is generally considered the weakest of the juvenile races at Royal Ascot and whilst this is  probably fair, it is not to say it cannot produce a decent horse. Group one winner Maybe won it in 2010 and multiple Hong Kong group winner Zaidan the year before. This years race doesn't look the strongest renewal and despite the massive field of 20 can be safely narrowed down to a few protagonist's.

Berkshire- By Mount Nelson out of group one winning Mare Kinnaird, he cost £60,000 and is a half brother to two winners. He ran a very promising race on debut, finishing third in a traditionally strong Newbury maiden. Only beaten 1 length by Coventry flop Championship, he had some decent sorts behind. His trainer has done okay with his juveniles this year operating a profit of £7.88. Has place possibilities in a race with loads of dead wood

Bunker- Yet another recent juvenile purchase by the Sheikh Al Thani operation. Bunker is a son of Arc and King George winner Hurricane Run. He impressed on debut, when ridden by Jimmy Fortune, easily winning by 2.5 lengths from a horse who had already shown decent form. The third that day Zeshov has since won and a few in behind give the form a solid look. Bullish noises are being made from the Hannon camp, who have won the race twice in the past five years. Must go close and in my opinion the one to beat

Calrissian- A son of German Stallion Lando who is making his debut for the Alan Jarvis team. He is in very deep and will need some god like assistance from the saddle to make the frame. No chance

Citizen Kane- Another debutant by a German stallion, this time Manduro. From a stable that does have first time out winners often at big prices. Not cheap at £40,000 there may well be other days for this one. Another that can be confidently written off

Flying Author- No chance on all known form

Freedom Square- respected on connections alone but did struggle to see out the seven at Gowran Park on his second start, admittedly on soft ground. Better last time when winning over six on good to firm ground at the Curragh and connections seem certain he will get further. Will have to improve on what he has shown so far, but would be foolish to write off for his master trainer

Friendship- The only representative from Ballydoyle and from their super Sire Galileo out of a Grade one winning mare who has produced nothing of note from her seven foals thus far. This one made a promising enough start on soft ground at Listowel finishing third beaten 3 lengths. O Briens two year old's are on fire this season but i just feel there are enough negatives in this ones profile to be able to give him the swerve

Khee Society- The first of three representatives from the David Evans yard. Whilst known as a trainer of juveniles Evans has been responsible for a better class of winner this year, picking up a few decent maidens recently. This one has yet to get his head in front and wont be doing so here either

Know Your Name- This son of Halling caused a 40/1 shock when scoring in a Nottingham maiden, stepping up massively on his first two runs. Will be a similar price in this, but will not be winning this

Lone Warrior- picked up the pieces in a messy Salisbury maiden on debut - favourite swerved interfering with the second and third horses, both of whom could be considered unlucky. Will have to step up on that form but Tom Queally has a good strike rate when teaming up with David Evans. Looks the best of the Evans triumvirate and might go well at big odds

Mater Carpenter- A son of promising freshman sire Mastercraftsman. He has been targeted at this race by connections ever since his debut win over subsequent winner Beau Nash. Readily outpaced over five furlongs on his second run by Windsor Castle third Anticipated he then went to Pontefract and floored a Hannon hotpot winning quite easily and looking strong at the line. In my opinion the runner up that day is nothing special and for mine Master Carpenter has to improve a fair bit if he is to take this prize

Scargill- Beaten 2 lengths by Master Carpenter in the aforementioned Pontefract race. He showed improved that form that day, having previously been beaten in a seller at Bath. Has Ryan Moore on board, which is about the only positive i can find. No chance

Sheapard Gate- By Ken Ramsay's US turf stallion Kittens Joy, this one owned and trained by Stan Moore is   surely there for the day out

Sir Jack Layden- trained by David Brown, who in my opinion is a vastly overrated trainer of two year old's. This one finished midfield in a York maiden on debut behind an impressive sort of Kevin Ryan's. Then was very well backed next time and ran a creditable second to a well touted Hannon newcomer. Much more on his plate here and has to improve again to be in the shake up

Somewhat- This son of Dynaformer was touted as Mark Johnston's Chesham horse prior to his debut at Musselburgh 8 days ago. Backed off the boards he duly won by 7 lengths from a potentially decent Richard Fahey newcomer. As you would expect from a horse related to a host of middle distance horses, the best being French Derby 4th Art Deco, he had no problems getting the seven furlongs and ran right to the line. If the race hasn't come too soon he has to be a massive runner. The main danger to the selection

Street Force- From a trainer renowned for throwing his horses in at the deep end and on the face of it this would appear to be another example. However there are positives to gleam from his profile. He has jockey of the moment James Doyle on his back, his trainer has had a juvenile winner at Ascot already this week, and sampled success in this race in 2010. He is also very well bred being a Street Cry half brother to Group three winner Laaheb from the further family of Luso, Warrsan and Needle Gun. Was noted to have been very green in the preliminaries on debut at Sandown and in the circumstances ran a good race to finish a never nearer 4th. A potential improver and one of the more likely outsiders to make an impression

Autumn Lily- Another progeny of Darley Stallion Street Cry and a half sister to Godolphin globetrotter Alexandros. Impressive on debut at Haydock winning easily at odds on by almost three lengths. Looking quite green early on before knuckling down to her job, suggesting improvement is probable. However that did look a weak enough maiden and she will need to find a few lengths if she is to be a win contender here

Bureau- Backed at huge odds on debut, she ran a blinder from the front before being ran down late beaten a 1/4 of a length by Zeshov, with Street Force behind. Well bred being by Halling out of a Cheveley Park winner she is a promising sort for the future but this will possibly come too soon. A decent second string to Mark Johnston's bow but an unlikely winner

Ihtimal- Has finished runner up on her two starts. Both fillies to have beaten her have the chance to frank form in today's Albany stakes. Ran a big race,seemingly well fancied, on debut. Beaten 1.75 lengths by Kiyoshi who had the advantage of experience with the consistent Memory Styx a further 7 lengths back in third. On the face of it her second to her white capped stablemate at 6/4 may look a touch disappointing but the winner may be useful. Another plausible each way contender

Tinga- A rare Galileo to have escaped from Tipperary. She ran a very promising race to finish a fast finishing third on debut over six furlongs at Doncaster. Needs to improve on the bare form, the winner runs in the Albany, the runner up since well beaten by a promising sort at Leicester. She looks a surefire improver over the extra furlong but will definitely need to

Verdict
A massive field but could possibly be a match with Bunker and Somewhat looking the two to concentrate on. Although the Mark Johnston charge possibly has the better form he only ran 8 days ago and i fancy Bunker who has been laid out for this to take the prize and give Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes their third winner in this race in the last six years

1 Bunker
2 Somewhat
3 Ihtimal







Thursday 20 June 2013

The Albany Stakes



I have been having a very frustrating ascot with dangers Rizeena and No Nay Never winning both winning at decent prices whilst my selections on the main have bombed. Hoping that will change, with the last two races the Albany and the Chesham looking like good opportunities to claw back profit lost. This is my runner by runner view on the Albany

Arabada- By Elnadim out of a modest dam, albeit a well related one being a half sister to Breeders cup winner Drosselmeyer. Readily beat a subsequent winner on debut at Catterick on debut but will have to massively improve on that form to play a hand here

Heart Focus- Trained, bred and owned by a man who always need to be feared in these events. She has been consistent in her four runs so far, with a steadily progressive profile culminating in an excellent second last time to the probable favourite, Sandiva in a listed contest at Naas. However that rival readily outpointed her by two lengths, the first two well clear from Fig roll who ran an excellent fourth in the Queen Mary earlier in the week. Couldn't rule out completely but has more to find to be a win contender

Isheemist- As a £3,000 purchase she owes connections nothing but surely there for the day out. Beat the frustrating cockney bob in a very weak Goodwood maiden and then improved with a decent fourth in the Hilary Needler at Beverley. Pat Smullen a good jockey booking but will not be winning this

Joyeus- By the super producer Kind, this filly is of course a half sister to the incomparable Frankel, as well as the group winners noble mission and bullet train. This one by Oasis Dream is bred to be a bit more forward than her illustrious siblings. Impressive on debut she beat Dancelot by almost 4 lengths and that one ran second to a promising sort at Kempton on Wednesday. Wears a hood which would suggest she has a quirks but she was quite professional first time out. Lady Cecil and Tom Queally are both in decent form. An obvious chance although possibly priced up on who she is rather than what she has done

Kidmenot- Won last time, her first win in four races, when beating Mr Matthews who has since gone in at Carlisle. She will not be winning this

Kiyoshi-  A massive eyecatcher under a considerate ride in what has proved to be a very strong Newmarket maiden she made no mistake next time in a decent race at Goodwood, first two well clear. The second has since filled the runners up spot to one of today's rivals, Wedding Ring at HQ. This daughter of Dubawi certainly has claims at decent odds

Lady Lara- An excellent Art filly who is related to a couple of winners abroad. Chucked in very deep here on debut. Will almost certainly sink

Lucky Kristale- one of the more likely outsiders. She has decent form in winning both her races. On debut pulling 11 lengths clear of the third when short heading subsequent winner Our Queenie and next time slamming Vigor by four lengths, who has since beat a promising sort of Sir Mark Prescott's easily in a Brighton maiden. Almost certainly would be shorter if housed in a more fashionable stable and has chances under the excellent Graham Lee

Midnite Angel- An impressive winner last time out, won seven lengths despite showing signs of greeness, she is the Richard Hannon first string, and a recent addition to the big spending Sheikh Al Thani operation. Obviously connections always need to be feared in these races, have won the race twice in the past decade, but i am not convinced by her profile.

Princess Noor- a £120,000 purchase and related to five winners she won a muddling race on the All Weather at kempton on debut. At first glance i thought it may have been a decent race, with serial runner up Memory Styx finishing only fifth. However the runner up let the form down when being well beaten at Brighton. I am a massive fan of Roger Varian and he does know his way around a two year old but i am not convinced she will be good enough to take a hand here

Race Hunter- Another runner for the well endowed Qatar Racing operation, she won well on debut. The runner up that day is a disappointing sort though. By David Barron who is a sneakily good trainer of two year olds and ridden by a master in Johnny Murtagh, this $160,00 daughter of crack US stallion Dixie Union is not without a chance but is likely to find a few too good

Rasheeda- Bred to make an impression at two, her dam violette was a group winner at two, other classy two year old types in the pedigree. A well backed winner on debut at Doncaster where she was strong at the finish having met slight interference. The runner up has since been beaten further by a promising Godolphin filly at Leicester. Another unexposed type with some sort of chance, it would be a shock if she was good enough to take top honours here

Red Lady- beaten out of sight on debut before then improving out of all recognition on second start when bolting up by four lengths at 25/1 from stepping out who has since franked the form with a comfortable victory in a weak Brighton maiden. Brian Meehan is having a fine time with his two year olds this year, operating at a 21% strike rate and showing a £24.38 profit. The sneaking suspicion is she got the run of the race at Haydock where she was in the front rank throughout, nothing got involved from behind. Not without a chance if going strictly by the form book

Sacred Aspect- Irish raider who won a six runner maiden at Leopardstown on yielding ground last time. I must confess i am not fully clued up the formlines of the Irish form but she does have a quality jockey on board. Cost only £7,500 and would be a surprise winner

Sandiva- originally a £18,000 purchase from the shrewd Middleham racing syndicate she was recently transferred to Sheikh Al Thani for no doubt a substantial profit for it members. A half sister to Brittania fourth Wentworth she was very impressive on debut at Nottingham when winning by six lengths from the aforementioned Stepping Out, despite being very green and being pushed along after two furlongs. Then travelled to Naas for a strong listed contest winning comfortably by two length. Has Frankie Dettori on board for the first time and has a very real chance of giving the Italian his first winner of the week. Absolutely the one to beat

Sleepy Sioux- trainer and jockey having a good time of it this season but this one wont be improving on those respective records. Finished 8th on debut, not running without promise but will do well to finish 8th here

Suite- Beat a decent yardstick on debut, before being bested by Alutiq- 7th in the Queen Mary, won her side- at Newbury. Quite well bred she cost £62,000 for owner Julie Wood but does look the second string of the Hannon duo. Of all the big outsiders possibly the most likely to sneak into the frame

Wedding Ring- £310,000 purchase from the family of St Leger winner Rule of Law who looked very impressive on debut, wore white cap beat her more fancied stablemate- runs in the Chesham tomorrow- who had already shown decent form on debut. A live chance for a trainer enjoying a decent season with his juveniles

Wonderfully- Regally bred daughter of Galileo- full sister to Mars, half sister to group one winning juvenile Nayarra- who won on debut. She took an age to reach the leaders just getting up on the line to win by a short head. Already looks like she may need further to be seen to best effect and it is a surprise to me that she doesn't run in the Chesham on Saturday. Jockey/Trainer combination obviously massively respected and is one that is totally unexposed. However i just think things may be happening a stride too quickly for her on this occasion

Verdict

For me this race revolves around Sandiva. She was well fancied before her debut when hacking up by six lengths before winning at listed level last time. Described by her trainer as potentially the best juvenile to pass through his hands i think she could potentially be a top notcher. Already favourite for next years 1000 guineas she has to go close. Of the others Joyeuse' price has the potential to be massively under's and Wonderfully may need further to be seen to best effect. Wedding Ring and Kiyoshi may be bigger threats to the selection. Of the outsiders there are reasons to believe Red Lady and Lucky Kristale may outrun their respective odds

1st Sandiva
2nd Wedding Ring
3rd Kiyoshi