Thursday 13 October 2016

                                                                 Caulfield Cup 

Preferment- four times a G1 winner, including over the 2400 in the BMW, but not in the same form this prep. Has been beaten pointless the last thrice behind Hartnell and would need to bounce back to beyond his peak to take this off 57 kilos 

Our Ivanhowe- Former top notch German stayer who knocked off Sea The Moon in his homeland before finishing a gallant 6th behind Epiphaneia in the Japan Cup. Not so good since his transfer to Australia and had to visit Doomben to get his G1 victory. Conditions of the race should suit third up and if putting his A game together he has the talent to get involved 

Exospheric- Just a notch from the best around in the UK, where he signed off with a highly creditable 5th In a loaded edition of the Juddmonte International. Still lightly raced for his age and conditions here should be perfect. This represents a steep drop in class and he has the class to go very close on his first run for the Freedmans 

Scottish- improving Godolphin raider who bested the multiple G1 winner Yorker on his last start. That was over 1800 and his improved form this year has all come up to 2000 metres but he was a fine 2nd behind Highland Reel on his last try at todays distance. Connections seem bullish and he has solid frame credentials 

Sir Isaac Newton- Coolmore raider who cost 3.6 million Guineas when purchased as a yearling. Has never lived up to his price tag or his reputation (was touted as a Derby contender at 2) but has been better this year and ran a blinder when 4th in the Juddmonte. No disgrace in finishing down the field in the hottest race of the year last time and impossible to rule out anything his master trainer aims at G1 company currently 

Tarzino- Son of Tavistock who won the Victoria Derby and Rosehill Guineas as a 3yo. However he is winless since and has been well beaten on his 3 runs this prep. Doesn't look in good enough form to contend at the finish 

Almoonqith- Well travelled 6yo who won races in France and Dubai before heading to Australia. Has taken out a Geelong and a Sandown Cup in his time but unlikely to be adding a Caulfield cup to his resume here 

Sir John Hawkwood- Former Michael Stoute handicapper who has developed into a ultra consistent group level performer in Australia. Seems to be improving as a 7yo and arrives here off a career best win in the Metropolitan. However this demands more and this requires another step forward if he is to take this 

Articus- German galloper who has generated plenty of buzz leading into his Australian debut. Only has a G3 to his name thus far but very lightly raced and finished within 1.5 lengths of subsequent Prix Dollar winner Potemkin in G1 company last time. Gets the assistance of Purton today and certainly not ruled out for his Melbourne Cup winning handler 

Tally- Godolphin 4yo who has built a largely consistent profile having hit the frame in 10 of his 13 starts. That portfolio includes 2 placed efforts at the top level including when 3rd behind Hartnell in the Turnbull last time. That run entitles him to have a crack here but unlikely to prove up to it 

Jameka- Arrives here following a fine 2nd behind Hartnell in the Turnbull and became a strong favourite for this contest once that rival was pointed towards Winx in the Cox Plate. She gets in here off a lovely weight and her trainer has been very bullish in the lead up. This has been the long term target and everything points to a big run 

Real Love- 10 time winner from the dominant Darren Weir stable, who took the G3 JRA cup in impressive style on her last start. However she was well behind today's rival Jameka the time before and she looks crudely short in the market. Gets the assistance of big race jockey Craig Williams and races off 52.5 but still shouldn't prove good enough

Set Square- Took the G1 Crown Oaks in 2014 but not in the same form at present. Her last time effort in the Turnbull lacked sparkle and she is a rough chance in this company 

Big Memory- Son of Duke of Marmalade who bested Goldikovas 5 x G1 placed brother Anodin as a juvenile when trained in Europe. That was a long time ago and he is merely a useful handicapper these days. Looks out his class here 

Sacred Master- Former Kiwi galloper who is now in the care of Chris Waller. Was sneaky good in the Metropolitan and if taking a jump from that this son of Mastercraftsman could well outrun his odds. One to keep onside for the exotics 

Pemberley- 5yo Mare who owns recent victories in the Sheep Hills Cup and the Murtoa Cup. Ran 3rd in a substandard edition of the Herbert Power last time and she is swimming in waters too deep here 

Go Dreaming- 7yo who is rated the roughest of the field by the odds compilers. He shocked in the Birthday Cup at Morphettville at odds of 50/1 for his last victory but a win here would be a stunner of all together different proportions 

                                                                Verdict 

Open renewal of the Caulfield Cup and one in which recent imports appear to hold a strong hand. One of these, the now locally trained Exospheric, makes the most appeal on his first start for team Freedman. He was a classy sort when trained in the UK and looked a G1 winner in waiting when slamming St Leger winner Simple Verse on his seasonal debut at Newmarket. He never quite lived up to that potential but still ran with immense credit on his sole try at the top table when running 5th in the Juddmonte International. This represents a steep drop in grade from that contest and if replicating that run he will be tough to beat. Sir Isaac Newton actually finished ahead of the selection that day but he lacks the scope that Exospheric possesses and should find a few too good. Scottish is another Euro raider who merits respect, whilst the home teams defences appear to be built around Jameka. She arrives here off the back of a fine run in the Turnbull when beating all bar Hartnell and this has been the prime target for a while. A big run from her seems assured. Another former Euro, Our Ivanhowe has a patchy profile these days but is capable of being there at the finish if putting his best foot forward 

1 Exospheric 
2 Our Ivanhowe 
3 Jameka