Thursday, 24 October 2013

Scott Dobson Memorial Doncaster Stakes [Listed]




                                                   Scott Dobson Memorial Doncaster Stakes


Stubbs- Danehill Dancer Colt out of Irish Oaks winner Moonstone. Was a beaten favourite in the Coventry Stakes having won his two races before that and the form of all three races does look slightly questionable. However this looks a suitable opportunity to get back on track after a four month break. Likely to enjoy the drop back to Listed class and looks the one to beat despite shouldering a 3lb penalty

Aeolus- By Araafa but still an impressive winner of his last two by a total of ten lengths. The runner up from his last victory has since franked the form with two facile victories, the lastest when defying a mark of 92 in a Newbury nursery. Clearly on the upgrade and cannot be ruled out for all that he will need a career best

Brave Boy- Two time winner who looked a useful sort when winning back to back races at Nottingham on his second and third starts. Was slightly disappointing on his all weather debut, bred for the surface, on his penultimate start. Before running okay without threatening the first two, winner useful, on his last start in the Rockingham. Connections reach for the visor today and it will have to eek out some improvement if he is to go close here

Deeds Not Words- Like so many from the stable has been very busy in his first year of racing. Looked ordinary on his first 6 starts before improving 20lbs when rattling off a hat trick on firm ground. Stepped up in class when taking in the Listed Two Year Old Trophy last time but finished well down the field. Always possible to forgive a poor run in that race, but still looks up against it against this opposition

Night of Thunder- Dubawi Colt out of a Galileo mare and looked to relish the conditions when a wide margin winner of a soft ground maiden at Goodwood on debut. Travelled like a good horse that day and it is unsurprising he steps up in class here. Likely to enjoy the ground conditions and would be foolish to underestimate

Rufford- The highest rated horse in the field who ran his best race by a margin on penultimate start when 2nd in the Mill Reef, his only start in soft ground to date. Was below that form last time when behind Brave Boy under faster conditions in the Rockingham. Ground should be ideal but still likely to be overbet for a horse who has only a maiden victory to his name

Verdict- Stubbs may have some questions to answer having not ran in over 4 months and having to shoulder a 3lb penalty against some useful rivals. But it must not be forgetten that he was Ballydoyles number one going into the Coventry and went off a short priced favourite for that race when finishing a respectable 6th. Dropping down in class here he can shoulder his listed winners penalty and get his career back on track. Once raced Night of Thunder may prove the biggest danger, especially if it comes up soft. Brave Boy can prove best of the rest

1 Stubbs
2 Night of Thunder
3 Brave Boy

Horris Hill Stakes Group Three [Colts and Geldings]



                                                       Horris Hill Stakes Group Three

Group Three which has struggled to produce a top class Colt since Tirol took the race in 1989 before going on to do the English-Irish Guineas double the following year. Other notable winners include Kris and Efisio. This years renewal looks a decent affair with five runners coming here having won on their last outing and one potential star arriving from across the channel

Anticipated- Winner of his first two races, but has been unable to win in his last six. His best run was a close up 2nd in the Molecomb and looks unlikely to improve for this step up to seven furlongs. Although rated 106 not difficult to pass over

Cordite- A wide margin winner of a soft ground Leicester maiden on his third start. That was his first start at 7 furlongs and so still can still rate unexposed. Interesting that his shrewd trainer is willing to sacrifice a mark of 85 to come here, but still looks to have it all to do

Day of Conquest- Two time winner who potentially ran into a good one when second to Scotland over 9 furlongs at Epsom last time. Readily beat 99 rated Safety Check the time before on the all weather and can be given a squeak in this

Extra Noble- Sir Percy Colt who has won twice and finished second from his 4 runs to date. Showed a smart turn of foot when taking a Kempton nursery off of 85 last time and deserves this step up in class. Still going to need a career best by some margin to become a group winner here

Galiway- Well bred Galileo Colt from the Andre Fabre stable. Only got up by a short neck on debut at Saint Cloud but was well in command under a cheeky ride. Master trainer always to be feared on his UK raids, and his first two year old runner here in years, Miss France was an impressive winner at Newmarket last month. Olivier Peslier comes over for the ride and everything points to a massive run. Surely must rate the one to beat

Invincible Strike- Expensive Colt from the James Tate stable who is arguably unlucky not to be unbeaten, having hung his chance away last time. Looked a useful sort on debut when comfortably beating the 85 rated Quickaswecan and could run well here at a price

Kickboxer- Suitably busy Mick Channon inmate who is making his 11th start of the campaign. His 3rd in the Cornwallis is easily his best piece of form and he comes here having been well beaten in a nursery off 79 last time. Really has no chance

Lyn Valley- Looked to be an improving sort before coming unstuck when stone cold last in the £100,000 sales race at Newmarket. Has to bounce back from that performance and his trainer continues to be in desperate form. On all known factors, looks up against it

Morning Post- Kevin Ryan Colt who arrives here having won nearly £200,000 after taking the Doncaster sales race and coming third in the valuable Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar on his last start. The former was his only run over todays distance but that looks a rare positive for his chances. Lacks the class to contend in this field

Piping Rock- Unbeaten Dubawi Colt who is two for two having taken a valuable newcomers maiden at Ascot on good ground before sploshing through the mud when taking a novices event at Salisbury by 4 lengths last time. Hard to weigh up both pieces of form but there is every chance he is a useful sort. Looks the pick of the Hannon trio and possibly the main threat to the French challenger

Trading Rock- Wide margin winner of a match at Leicester on his last start. Had ran with credit in stakes races the two times before that which has earned him a three figure rating. Possibly flattered by that mark and probably not good enough to be considered for win or place purposes

Verdict- Useful looking field but a prize that is likely for export over the channel. The well bred Galiway is the Colt in question and although he has only won an unraced maiden he still looks the horse to beat. The home challenge has a few useful sorts with the unbeaten Piping Rock probably rating the best. Day of Conquest and Invincible Strike also warrant a mention

1st Galiway
2nd Piping Rock
3rd Day of Conquest







Monday, 21 October 2013

Racing Post Trophy [Group 1]




                                                         Racing Post Trophy


The most reliable of trials for providing Derby clues in recent years. With Motivator, Authorized and Camelot all doing the double since 2004. Aiden O Brien has been the dominant trainer in recent times taking out three of the past four renewals and he has three Colts entered. This years field looks a cracker, even with absence of Toormore, with numerous unexposed juveniles looking to make the step up to Group One level

Altruistic- Ridden and trained by 'Saturday kingpin' Johnny Murtagh, this Galileo Colt arrives here with one win from his two starts. That was on debut but he improved on that last time when beaten 2 lengths by the impressive Geoffrey Chaucer at the Curragh. Finished just behind useful yardstick Oklahoma City on that occasion and judged on that form he will have to improve to take a hand at the finish

Buanorotti- Third foal from the Group 2 winning sprinter Beauty is Truth, who has already produced 2 Group winners from her 2 runners to date. This one will likely keep that record intact judging on his nine length romp from a subsequent winner  at Tipperary last time. Possibly not in this company though and the early betting suggests he is the third string of the O Brien team. Cannot be totally dismissed but has to be considered an unlikely winner

Century- Looks to be the Ballydoyle chosen one as they look to improve their superb recent record in the race. His dam was a Group Three winner over six furlongs for Alan Jarvis, but judging on his debut a mile will prove his minimum distance. He impressed many that day, when bounding clear of a well regarded John Oxx Colt. Has a very attractive profile for this and has to enter calculations, bidding to give his sire a 5th winner of this race since 2004

Chief Barker- Unbeaten Colt who arrives here seeking a 4 timer for owners Middleham Park. Always seem to do just enough, he has won his three races by a total distance of a length, and had to re rally to keep his unbeaten record intact last time. However that form has since been well boosted by the runner up that day since bolting up in the Group One Fillies Mile. Still the suspicion is that he will need to improve if he is to join his team mate Toormore in becoming a top level winner this year

Dolce N Karama- Thistle Bloodstock maiden who is running here primarily to show off the owners Stallion The Carbon Unit. Will most likely do this by finishing last under Tadgh O Shea

Johann Strauss- High Chapparal colt whose coveted name and eye catching entries ensured he was hyped well before he made his debut in a Newmarket maiden. Was only 4th that day but was a massive eye catcher, coming from well off the pace to finish a never nearer 2.25 lengths in arrears. Was long odds on to break the maiden next time at Naas, but took an age to pick up before rallying late and was narrowly denied by the 96 rated Sniper. Really hard one to judge and he has been sneakily backed over the past few days, couldn't rule out a massive run but also couldn't rule out a terrible one. Definitely the enigma of the race

Kingston Hill- Unbeaten Colt from the in form Roger Varian stable who arrives here having won the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket in impressive fashion. That was a really likeable display, having been nudged along at halfway, he was brave in finding the gaps and came away for a ready success. The runner up Oklahoma City is decent, but would not be in the higher echelons of the O Briens juveniles. Respected, but looks plenty short enough in the market

Pinzolo- Monsun Colt who has made a tremendous impression on his two runs to date. Appeared to be the stable second string on debut when hosing up at Newmarket, runner up a winner by 8 lengths in a conditions race on Thursday. And then travelled all over his rivals in a decent five runner conditions event at Newbury last time. Only narrowly got up that day under a poor ride, and the collateral form through Pupil would have him behind Kingston Hill, but he can be rated a fair bit better than the winning margin. Looks to have a touch of speed about him despite his stout breeding and looks a massive runner here

Snow Sky- A wide margin winner of a Heavy ground maiden at Salisbury last time who has been supplemented for the race. That was a poor enough race, the runner up has since been beaten by further, and this looks far too tough. Priced up on connections rather than form and can be readily discounted

Somewhat- Consistent juvenile from the Mark Johnston team who ran a career best last time when narrowly going down to Berkshire in the Royal Lodge. That was a good run, although likely that it flattered him and it would be something of a disappointment should he prove good enough to win. Trainer form also a massive concern

The Grey Gatsby- Impressive winner on debut but has had his limitations exposed in better company since. Readily put in his place by Dewhurst also ran Outstrip last time and it would be a surprise if he could add to his trainers victory in 2005

Verdict- Super race in store and more than likely a massive pointer for next years classics. The selection is Pinzolo who has looked potentially top class is his two runs to date. The runner up from his debut performance payed a handsome compliment to the form on Thursday and he looks to have the correct blend of speed and stamina required to take this race. Century has to respected as the apparent number one from Ballydoyle, but he seems to lack the 'quotes' of some of their previous winners. Kingston Hill was impressive in the Autumn Stakes whilst Chief Barker beat a Group One winning filly on his most recent outing and both are respected . Of the rest Johan Strauss has had more column inches than his shorter priced stablemate and could go well at a price

1 Pinzolo
2 Johan Strauss
3 Century


Thursday, 10 October 2013

Coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes [Listed]




                                                     Rockingham Stakes Listed

A quality looking field, with a few unexposed sorts taking on rivals with more established form. The highest rated in the field is RUFFORD who gained a OR of 108 for finishing second in a muddling Mill Reef stakes last time. He looks flattered by his mark and is opposable. Second in on the ratings is FIGURE OF SPEECH who was fourth in the Mill Reef but was heavily defeated in the mud as Salisbury last time. He has become frustrating and comes with risks attached and so is readily passed over. Of the unexposed sorts MUSHIR is perhaps the most interesting, having won on debut at cramped odds at Kempton. He was very green that day, and rates a likely improver. BRAVE BOY was disappointing last time on the AW but looked very promising on his three runs at Nottingham, whilst OUTER SPACE although put in his place by Hot Streak, runs in the Middle Park, rates a danger. MYSTIQUE RIDER receives a notable jockey booking but is likely to find a few too good. I am going to take a chance on ONLINE ALEXANDER the only filly in the race who cost £100,000 and is out of a half sister to Red Clubs. Only rated 82 she has masses to find on the book but couldn't have been more impressive last time at Beverley when circling the field on the bridle before romping away from the 79 rated Sleepy Sioux by 4 lengths. HAIKBIDIAC carries an official rating of 102 in here having taken a valuable sales race and finishing third in a French group three last time. Despite his lofty rating he doesn't look good enough. BLURRED VISION remains a maiden after four runs and will still be one after five while northern raiders NO LEAF CLOVER and NORTHERN WATERS need to find masses  of improvement to get involved. The former having suffered defeat in a nursery off of a mark of 77 on his last start, and the former having found group three company much too tough when last of seven in the Sirenia stakes at Kempton

Verdict
1 Online Alexander
2 Outer Space
3 Brave Boy


Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Vision.AE Rockfel Stakes Group 2 [Fillies]




                                                              Rockfel Stakes Group 2


In essence the fillies Dewhurst and a race which rivals its 'brother' in delivering classic clues for the following year. In the last decade classic winners Just The Judge, Speciosa and Finsceal Beo have all taken this race en route to classic glory in their 3 year old campaign. In all no less than 6 winners of this race in the past decade have delivered on their promise by becoming group one heroines in their classic campaign.

Al Tharika- A ready winner of a Yarmouth maiden, 2nd has since won easily at Wolverhampton, who has been recently purchased by the free spending Sheikh Joaan. Looked useful the first day and has to rate one of the more likely sorts in a contest lacking depth

Blockade- 3 time winner who finished a close up 8th in a Group Three at Ayr last time. I would suggest that is as good as she is and she doesn't appeal as a win contender

Hoku- Maiden winner who comes here having finished down the field in the Marcel Boussac last Sunday. This represents a drop in class but she still rates an unlikely winner and the stable seem to have a far stronger option in Lightning Thunder

Ifrika- Clive Brittain filly who has finished fourth in two maidens so far. The second of those was in a very hot race at HQ and so may not be the rank outsider she appears at first glance for a trainer renowned for tilting at windmills

Lightning Thunder- Clear form choice having been the only one to give the potentially top class Miss France a race in the Oh So Sharp Stakes last time. Another Miss France victim Indonesienne has since franked the form by taking the Group One Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend. There are no rivals of that quality in this field and the race looks at her mercy. A confident selection

Lustrous- Impressive winner on debut at Salisbury before running with credit when 4th in the May Hill. Did finish behind the 95 rated Lady Lara that day and that holds the form down somewhat. Still unexposed and has definite place possibilities but would need to find to trouble the favourite

Thewandaofu- Jamie Osbourne filly who has finished up in the runner up berth on her last three starts. Nearly won a decent nursery off of a mark of 73 last time, which shows the mountain she needs to climb to go one better today

Valonia- Qatar Racing owned filly who finished runner up behind the subsequent Group Three runner up Qawaasem on her first outing. Made no mistake on second start when taking a very warm Goodwood maiden before running a close 4th in a Group Three contest at Ayr last time. Despite being a beaten favourite that was a solid effort and she looks the main danger to the selection. Her first try at Seven furlongs

Ventura Mist- Middleham Park owned filly who has been a credit to connections and has won £130,000 in her ten runs to date. Despite such a workload she arrives on the back of a career best performance, when taking the Listed Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar last time. Steps up a furlong today but no reason why she won't be suited by it. Should run her usual solid race without being good enough to win

Verdict- Not a vintage renewal of a race won by last years Irish 1000 Guineas Heroine Just The Judge. The obvious starting point has to be Lightning Thunder whose 2nd behind Miss France was well advertised at Longchamp over the weekend. She ran into a good one that day and showed a willing attitude when defying a stumble in taking down two useful Colts the time before. She looks to have everything going for her here to become a Group 2 winner. Valonia appears to be the main danger having ran well in 3 tough races so far in her career, with the unexposed Al Tharika appealing for minor honours

1 Lightning Thunder
2 Valonia
3 Al Tharika










Vision.AE Middle Park Stakes Group 1




                                                    Middle Park Stakes Group 1

Often seen as the poor relation in comparison to the Dewhurst and usually contested by sprinting types more than horses that will excel at the classic distance. It still usually produces a winner worthy of group one status however, with recent winners including Bushranger, Dutch Art and 5 time group 1 winner Dream Ahead in 2009. This years event looks an open affair with 7 of the British contenders rated within 4lbs of each other with added intrigue arriving in the shape of two very promising Irish raiders

Astaire- A winner of 3 of his 4 starts and took the Gimcrack last time with a battling display from the front. They finished in a bunch that day and while the form is okay, the second has since finished a respectable 4th in the Jean Luc Lagardere, the suspicion is he will need to improve a fair chunk to take a first Group One

Bahamian Heights- The winner of a valuable nursery at York off of a mark of 90 three starts back. Has struggled when pitched into group company however and this by far the strongest field he has taken on. Readily passed over

Brown Sugar- Dual Group Three winning juvenile who seems grossly under appreciated. However even his biggest fans will admit a head defeat of the disappointing Figure Of Speech is a long way short of what is likely to be required here. I loath to write him off completely but he still doesn't appeal as a potential winner in this field

Great White Eagle- £760,000 two year old purchase by the Coolmore outfit who has begun repaying his extravagant price tag with two facile victories so far. Has twice finished ahead of Remember You who was beaten a length in a Fillies Group Three at Ayr and the bare form wouldn't be good enough to take this. However appeals as a potential star and looks a massive runner in this for his trainer who won it in 2004 and 2011

Green Door- Cheaply brought Camacho colt who has garnered three victories from seven runs for rookie trainer Olly Stevens. The best of these came last time when he was a shock winner of the Flying Childers at Doncaster. However that looked a rancid Group Two and he will have to improve massively to take a hand in the finish

Hot Streak- Superb looking Iffraaj colt who was dominant in taking the Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot last week. Entitled to take his chance on the back of that display, although it would be a concern that this may be an afterthought. Has taken a keen hold in his races but relaxed a lot more last time resulting in his devastating finishing kick. If in the same form he looks the main threat to the Irish raiders

Jallotta- Highly tried Mick Channon colt who wasn't good enough to take either of the recent sales races at Newmarket. Will be much the same story here

Justice Day- David Elsworth speedster who made his racecourse debut as long ago as April 19th. Has generally held his form well and won easily in a bog at Salisbury last time. Looks a few pounds shy of what will be needed here

Saayerr- Richmond winner who could finish only 6th under a 3lb penalty in the Gimcrack last time. Better off at the weights with the winner today and gets big race pilot Johnny Murtagh on his back. Another of this years group winning juveniles that looks vulnerable to something top class.

Shamshon- £420,000 purchase who won a weak maiden at Sandown on debut, albeit by 6 lengths, and then took a listed contest in France on second start. Was slightly disappointing when only 5th in the Mill Reef behind two of todays rivals and the suspicion is he is better than that. Perhaps worth another chance and a potential runner at a price

Speedfiend- Noel Quinlan Colt who looks more than good enough to pick up a maiden. Rated only 84 though so won't be breaking his duck today

Sudirman- Second Irish raider and the clear form choice having taken out the Group One Phoenix Stakes on his penultimate start and then finding only Toormore too good in the National Stakes last time. That form stands out in this field and he is a big runner for David Wachman

Supplicant- Comes here looking for a four timer having completed his Hat Trick when winning the Mill Reef last time. That was a muddling affair with the horse that finished last Trading Profit only beaten 2.75 lengths. He gets the Ryan Moore treatment today although that wasn't enough when the pair finished 5th in the Molecombe behind Brown Sugar. Needs to find to take this

Verdict- Excellent renewal which brings no less than 8 winners at Group Three level or above. That proves how open the two year old scene has been in the UK this season with many of todays rivals appearing evenly matched. Therefore it makes sense to focus on the two Irish horses both of whom look capable of fighting out the finish. Sudirman brings the proven form having beaten the Dewhurst favourite War Command into third in the Phoenix Stakes but Great White Eagle is completely unexposed and may be able to improve past him here. The selection was an expensive purchase and comes here unbeaten in two runs, and while he will have to improve on the bare form he looks very likely to do so. Of the rest you could give place chances to numerous runners with Shamshon perhaps worth another chance after his under par run in the Mill Reef. Hot Streak is also respected

1 Great White Eagle
2 Sudirman
3 Shamshon






Dubai Dewhurst Stakes Group 1




                                                          Dewhurst Stakes Group 1

The preeminent juvenile race on the calendar and one that is often won by the years champion freshman. Winners in the last decade include greats such as Shamardal, Sir Percy, Teofilio, the father and son pairing of New Approach and Dawn Approach and of course the greatest of them all the incomparable Frankel. The latter is the only home based winner since 2005 with Jim Bolger in particular enjoying an incredible record in the race with 5 winners in the past 7 years. He doesn't have a runner this year but Aiden O Brien brings over his impressive Coventry winner in an attempt to maintain Ireland's recent domination of the race

Anjaal- Richard Hannons sole representative who has won his last two starts. Won a muddling renewal of the July Stakes, race not really worked out, and will have to step up on that form to win this. Looks an unlikely winner

Cable Bay- Admirably consistent sort but who keeps finding one or two too good in his forays into group company. Has only a maiden victory to his name and let a winnable opportunity in a group three slip by last time. Very likely to run up to his mark and that mark is very unlikely to be good enough

Friendship- Aiden O Briens second string and very likely to be responsible for the pace. A decent sort in his own right but his limitations have been exposed with his two fourths in group company and one would have to assume, even if he was running on merit, that he would lack the class to do so

Outstrip- Classy sort from the Godolphin team who has only found Toormore too good in his career to date. Looked to be an improving horse when slamming Cable Bay in the Champagne Stakes last time and has to be respected as the sole choice of a barn with an abundance of juicy two year olds. Has every chance of taking the prize

Stormadal- Rated 88 having finished third in a mile nursery at Newmarket. Looks to be making up the numbers

War Command- War Chant colt who sprang to prominence when blitzing the field by six lengths in the Coventry.That may not have been a vintage renewal but he was still a mightily impressive winner. Bubble appeared to burst the time after when only third behind Sudirman in the Group One Phoenix Stakes but he bounced back to something like his best when readily winning a Group Two at the Curragh last time. Has to be considered the horse to beat for his master trainer

Verdict- A slightly disappointing turn out which on form looks a match between crack juveniles representing the powerhouses of Darley and Coolmore. Preference goes to the latter's Coventry hero War Command who arrives here having bounced back to form last time after his below par effort in the Phoenix Stakes. He is no good thing mind and it would be no surprise if Godolphins Outstrip improved past him having looked better than ever at Doncaster last time. The rest appear to be running for third and Cable Bay looks the most likely to grab that position

1 War Command
2 Outstrip
3 Cable Bay


                                             

Autumn Stakes Group 3




                                                                  Autumn Stakes Group 3

Often an informative contest with last years contest proving particularly strong with the first 6 all receiving a rating of at least 110 in their 3 year old seasons. The winner Trading Leather went on to Irish Derby success following in the footsteps of Dylan Thomas, who finished 2nd in this race when it was ran at Salisbury in 2005, before going to becoming an Arc hero as a four year old.

God Willing - Rare debutant winner from the Ed Dunlop yard before finishing a slightly disappointing fifth behind Miracle of Medinah last time. Would be too soon to right him off, his debut win has worked out, but needs more to contend here

Kingston Hill - Unbeaten having won readily on debut for a trainer who has a cracking record first time out with his juveniles. That was a taking performance although it is likely those in behind aren't up to much. Still unexposed and considered

Mount Logan - 135,000 euros yearling who is out of a full sister to group one winner Observatory who impressed when winning a mile maiden at Yarmouth last time. The form has yet to be tested but his Racing Post trophy entry suggests he is well thought of. Another unexposed contender who has the potential to step up

Nezar - Consistent type who is rated 96 having finished third, ahead of God Willing, in the Somerville last time. That would seem a fair reflection of his ability and likely to have to find more to take this

Oklahoma City - £675,000 colt who is from the family of crack stayer Kayf Tara who made a severe dent in that purchase price when taking the big sales pot at Newmarket last week. Had ran well in group company before that and has to be well respected in this line up

Pupil - Hannon colt who was well behind God Willing on debut. Was favourite that day, so obviously well thought of, and the money came again on second start when he made no mistake. Was a close up, likely he was flattered by the margin, third to the Racing Post bound Pinzolo last time and will need to improve to take a hand in this

Safety Check - Consistent sort from Godolphin who defied top weight in a course and distance nursery last time. Now rated 99 he is deserving of this step up in class. Likely to run a solid race but well enough exposed and it would be disappointing if he proved good enough

Sir Jack Layden - Produced a career best last time when finishing third to Berkshire and has been handed a 23lb rise on the back of that display. The handicapper thinks he has every chance in this, however i am not convinced. Even with Murtagh on board he looks an unlikely winner to me

Truth or Dare - Hat trick seeking colt who beat four time nursery winner comfortably on last start. That was a fair performance but slightly off putting that Hughes chose to ride Pupil. Think he may be underestimated by the market due to Hughes desertion and could go well at a price

Verdict- Open looking Group 3 in which Irish challenger Oklahoma city sets the standard. However he isn't being campaigned like one Ballydoyle have high hopes for and i want to oppose him. Finding a rival who could potentially run up to 108 is proving tricky though. I will take a chance on the supposed second string of the Hannon team Truth or Dare who relished the step up to a mile last time when dismissing a decent yardstick. Of the rest Safety Check can finish in the frame with the unexposed Kingston Hill rating as the dark horse

1 Truth or Dare
2 Oklahoma City
3 Safety Check





Monday, 7 October 2013

£200 Free Bets @ Betdaq Nursery Handicap Class 2





                                                   Wednesday 810 Kempton Class 2 Nursery

A new race to the juvenile Calendar having been run for the first time last year when won impressively by the Godolphin Colt Tamarkuz

Claim The Roses- Ed Vaughan Colt who comes here having won two of his three starts to date. Significantly both his victories have come on a artificial surface, his one run on turf resulted in a heavy defeat, which is not surprising given his American breeding. Retains the hood that he wore last time and perhaps more importantly retains the partnership with Ryan Moore. On the balance of his form his rating of 88 may be on the heavy side but he is still unexposed, especially on this surface, and has to be hugely respected

Beau Nash- Richard Hannon colt who has been on the go a long time having made his debut on the 5th of April. Has for the most part held his form well, in the frame in five of his seven starts, but remains vulnerable to a progressive type off his mark of 85.

Finn Class- Really likable sort from the Michael Bell stable who has had no less than ten runs on his debut season but seems to be thriving on it. Probably ran a career best last time when narrowly beaten off todays mark. Rarely runs a bad race and still has some mileage from this mark, has to be well respected

Dream and Search- Expensive colt who makes his nursery debut having had three runs in maiden company. His first two runs were in hot maidens and the second of those was a commendable effort behind Mawfoor. Was disappointing last time however when only fifth at 9/4 in a weaker looking Newcastle maiden and that has to rate a backward step. Whilst connections are always respected, he doesn't have the profile of a handicap plot and he will need to show more to take this

Mime Dance- Notnowcato Colt who already looks like he is screaming out for more distance than todays seven furlongs. Didn't stop him winning on his penultimate start though and was only just held last time, when running on late. Looks feasibly treated off of 74 and has apprentice find Oisin Murphy taking off a further 3lbs. Should run with credit but likely to find one or two too good

Arrowzone- Bottom weight who would have a squeak on his second to Longton at Newcastle. That is his best piece of form by a mile though, ran okay in a weak Catterick nursery yesterday, and other look to have more persuasive claims

Verdict- A decent looking juvenile nursery which can go to the top weight Claim The Roses for the in form Ed Vaughan team. Unbeaten in two on the all weather he can can defy a 8lb rise and make it 3/3 on artificial surfaces. Finn Class is an admirable sort and would appear the main danger with Mime Dance also worth a second glance for apprentice of the moment Oisin Murphy

1 Claim The Roses
2 Finn Class
3 Mime Dance

Friday, 4 October 2013

Total Prix Marcel Boussac Group One [Fillies]


                                                    Prix Marcel Boussac Group 1 [Fillies]


A race with a long illustrious history with a roll call which includes all time greats Miesque, Salsabil and more recently Zarkava

Veda- Impeccably bred Aga Khan filly who comes here having won cosily on debut over course and distance. Always have to respect the trainer in this contest, took it in 2007 and 2009, and interesting that she comes straight here having won the maiden that Zarkava took before taking this race. Has to be considered despite her lack of experience

Sandiva- Richard Fahey star who originally cost only £18,000 for her former owners but has proved one of the top juveniles around. Compiling a record of 3 wins from 4 races with her only defeat coming when second at Royal Ascot in the Albany. Richard Hughes takes over for the injured Frankie Dettori and judging on her impressive victory at Deauville last time she will be tough to peg back

Hoku- Consistent sort who has finished in the placings on 6 of her 8 runs. Her only victory came in a Windsor maiden and rated only 88 she will have to improve massively to get involved

Testina- Lawman filly who took a maiden at Saint Cloud on her last start having finished runner up on her first two starts. Her form looks a fair way off what will be needed to win this. Readily passed over

Kenzadargent- Cheap filly who has earned 4 times her purchase price in her 4 runs to date. However only 5th behind Lesstalk In Paris in a Group Three last time and no reason why she should turn that form around

Lesstalk In Paris- Unbeaten half sister to Dastarhon who took a group three last time at Chantilly in striking fashion, winning under hands and heels. Seems to be well fancied and definitely one of the more likely sorts in the field

Majeyda- Quirky Godolphin filly who has won 2 of her 4 runs to date. Was well beaten behind her stablemate Ihtimal in the May Hill last time and looks to lack the class to take this

Wonderfully- Full sister to Mars who went one better than her sibling when becoming a group three winner at Leopardstown in July. Hasn't cut much ice in her two tries at this level and this is arguably her toughest assignment to date. Gets the first time blinkers and the assistance of Ryan Moore but still looks an unlikely winner in this field

Stormyra- Four race maiden who has ran some solid races in defeat in group company but still looks well up against it

Princess Bavaroise- Henry Pantall filly who like so many of his was sent to Germany in search of rich pickings, when taking a £40,000 conditions race at Baden Baden by 3 lengths on her last start. She won a listed contest at Vichy by the same distance the time before and before that had ran the useful Vedeux to short neck. Looks to be improving and not to be underestimated for her wily handler

Queen Catrine- Recent purchase for the Qatar Racing team who has been campaigned exclusively over six furlongs. Has ran with immense credit having never been out of the first 3 in her career, the last 3 in group company, but just seemed to lack the finishing kick of her rivals over the sprint distance. Could well improve for the step up to the mile and looks over priced in the early markets

Indonesienne- Useful 2nd string to her owners bow having only been narrowly beaten by Miss France last time. That one franked the form when taking the Oh So Sharp stakes at Newmarket last week and is currently disputing favouritism for next years 1000 guineas. Her trainer won the Jean Luc Lagardere in 2011 so knows how to ready a juvenile for the big day and not to be discounted

Royalmania- Freddy Head filly who comes from an exceptional Argentinian family and she looks set to uphold the family tradition in France. A winner by 8 lengths on debut when an odds on favourite and a cheeky winner last time at odds of 1/5, she is completely unexposed and could legitimately be anything. Very short in the market for one who hasn't contested a group race and can only be watched at the likely prices

Verdict- As ever a belting renewal in which all eyes will be focused on the exciting Royalmania who comes here with a massive reputation having not come off the bridle for two facile victories. Yet she is very short and this is a massive step up in class and so she is reluctantly passed over on value grounds. The selection is the admirable Sandiva who has ran with credit in 3 countries in her short career. Slightly disappointing when a beaten favourite at Royal Ascot, she bounced back to form last time when taking a Group Three contest at Deauville. Obviously the travelling is not an issue and everything seems in place for a big run. This is a really deep field though and Veda, Lesstalk in Paris and Indonesienne can all be given a chance, whilst Queen Catrine is also interesting stepping up to a mile for the first time. All in all a cracking race in prospect

1 Sandiva
2 Royalmania
3 Lesstalk in Paris




Qatar Jean Luc Lagardere Group 1 2YO Colts and Fillies




                                                  Jean Luc Lagardere Group One


A group one open to Colts and Filles over seven furlongs which usually produces a top notch winner with the likes of Oratorio, Holy Roman Emporer and Rio De La Plata amongst the recent victors. Although it must be noted that it hasn't produced a classic winner since American Post who took this in 2003, two years after the race's best recent winner Rock of Gibraltar. This years race took a blow when crack juvenile Kingman was withdrawn with War Command another notable absentee but it still rates as an interesting affair

Al Muthana- Half brother to Libranno who comes here looking pretty exposed having had 5 runs. Only seventh in the Morny and a disappointing fifth in a group 3 at Chantilly last time which means it is isn't difficult to look elsewhere

Charm Spirit- Freddy Head Colt who was a winner of a four runner conditions race over course and distance last time. Probably entitled to win that day but did it well from the front, asserting late on for a comfortable win. The runner up is not one of the stars from the Andre Fabre team and will have to improve to take a hand here but still unexposed and represents top connections

Noozhoh Canarias- Spanish son of 2006 Foret winner Caradak who comes here unbeaten in three. Won his first two starts in his native Spain before heading to La Teste De Buch for a listed contest last time where he won readily by 3 lengths having made all. Hasn't run for over two months but his form has to be well respected and he looks a big player

Wilshire Boulevard- Only representative from Aiden O Brien who has won this race 7 times since 1997 and has to be respected for that fact alone. Certainly not one of the barns star juveniles but still comes here rated 110 having been narrowly beaten in the Gimcrack last time. A hardy sort who is sure to give his running but it will be disappointing should he prove good enough to win

Outstrip- Godolphin raider who has only found Toormore too good in his 3 runs do far. Was wildly impressive last time when readily dismissing two 108 rated juveniles by an easy 3 lengths at Doncaster. That form looks solid with the third a reliable yardstick and certainly looks one of the likelier ones here

Another Party- A winner of his first three races, disqualified on second start, at conditions level, he has found the step up to group level difficult to bridge. Has ran with credit to be placed twice in Group 3 company but was put in his place by today's rival Noozhoh Canarias by over 6 lengths on his penultimate start and it is difficult to see him reversing the form here

Karakontie- Looks the best of the home challenge having only met defeat once in his 3 run career to date. That was at the hands of the Chesham runner up Bunker, going down by a short head in a listed contest at Deauville. That is up there with the best form on offer in todays field but he probably improved on it last time when taking a Group 3 over course and distance, beating a Fabre hot pot into 2nd. Needs to be taken very seriously for his English trainer

Barley Mow- Represents last years winning connections but doesn't bring the standard of form that Olympic Glory possessed on arrival last year. A narrow winner of a maiden on debut, runner up beaten at odds on since, before being put in his place by Be Ready at Doncaster. It may turn out in time that he ran into a good one that day but as it stands he has it all to prove at this level

Baby Foot- Footstepsinthesand colt who lost his unbeaten record last time, going down by a short head in a listed contest at Deauville. The form of that race looks weak enough in the context of this event and the presence of Lingfield maiden winner Double Point in fourth, beaten 2.5 lengths, holds down the form. Would rate an unlikely winner for mine

Verdict- With the absence of Kingman and War Command this group one contest has an open feel to it, with any number of unexposed Colts looking capable of fighting out the finish. I have sided with Karakonite whose form in his last two runs demands he be taken very seriously. The main danger appears to be Spanish raider Noozhoh Canarias who arrives here unbeaten in three and impressed on his French debut last time. He will likely be a value play on the UK markets due to his understated connections. Outstrip was mightily impressive last time and has to be respected but the formative markets have him crudely short and he can be opposed on value grounds alone

1 Karakontie
2 Noozhoh Canarias
3 Outstrip







Thursday, 3 October 2013

£300,000 Tattersalls Millions 2YO Fillies' Trophy




                                                   £300,000 Two Year Old Trophy


A race still in its formative days having been only run five times but one that has produced two winners who went on the become dual group one heroines in the shape of 2009 winner Lillie Langtry and Samitar who was victorious in 2011. 10 of the 14 runners come here having run in the designated trial ran over a furlong shorter a fortnight ago

Amesia_ Brighton maiden winner who finished down the field in the 'trial' for the race two weeks ago. She had the benefit of Johnny Murtagh on her back that day, she gets Shane Kelly today

Aqlaam Vision- A winner of a valuable nursery at Doncaster on her penultimate start before finishing sixth in the £100,000 sales races over course and distance. Was well fancied that day, went off 4/1, but was struggling a long way out. She eventually rallied to finish a creditable sixth beaten less than 4 lengths, should be suited by the extra furlong she encounters today, but still plenty of work to do to reverse the form with Wedding Ring

Broughtons Secret- Made her debut in the sales race of two weeks ago where she finished 12th. Likely to finish towards the back again here

Chess Valley- Impressive debut winner, form not worked out, who then finished third in a Nottingham nursery on second start. Only tenth in the trial race she looks up against it

Fashion Fund- Interesting contender, although still a maiden, for the Brian Meehan team. Down the field on debut she improved, as so many of her stables juveniles do, on her second start when beaten less than 3 lengths by the talented Lightning Thunder in a Newbury maiden. Improved again when third in the trial for this and must rate an each way chance with the always excellent Kevin Manning taking over in the plate today

Flippant- Expensive daughter of Pivotal who runs for South African connections. Ran in two strong maidens to open her career, beaten around 5 lengths in both, before making no mistake at Haydock over a mile last time. Cuts back a furlong here which is by no means certain to suit and passed over for that reason

Manderley- Was a beaten favourite when fourth behind subsequent group winner Princess Noor on debut at Kempton. That was a promising start to her career but she hasn't progressed from that display and comes here with a modest rating of 76 having finished down the field behind Wedding Ring last time. Doesn't look good enough

Modify- Bryan Smart filly who is rated 57 after 3 runs, looks outclassed here and probably one for low grade nurseries after this

Night Song- Uber impressive debut winner on the July course, when having circled the field she stayed on strongly at the end beating Casual Smile, rated 89, readily. Was slightly disappointing that she couldn't give Sound Reflection, well beaten in group one company since, more of a race last time, although her rival did get the run of the race that day. Back to turf and with a probable fast pace to aim at she rates as the one to beat for me

Oxsana- Was runner up in the designated trial race having only broken her maiden three days previously at Yarmouth. That was a monster run and if she is over her efforts after a two week break, she has every chance of picking up a share of the extravagant prize money on offer here

Two Smart- Very well fancied on debut at Yarmouth but could only manage sixth behind the since group three placed Sweet Acclaim. That was a strong maiden for the track which was reflected in her SP of only 9/1 for the £100,000 race a fortnight ago. Only seventh, albeit not beaten far, she will need to improve to get involved

Wedding Ring- The form horse on display who having finished third in two black type races, had no less than nine of her rivals behind her when winning the trial for this 14 days ago. Was entitled to win that day, but showed a very willing attitude when being attacked from both sides over a furlong out, eventually prevailing by a hard fought 1/2 a length from Oxsana. Has to be well respected in her attempt to follow up for her new jockey Martin Lane and she rates the obvious danger to the selection

Wedding Wish- Finished 7th behind Night Song on debut before showing improved form when 4th behind Rosehill Artist on her second outing. Gets big race pilot Johnny Murtagh on her back today but still rates a most unlikely winner

Zawiyah- Invincible Spirit Filly who finished second behind wide margin winner Radiator on her penultimate start. Improved significantly to finish a close up 4th in the trial for this and has to prove that wasn't a fluke. Readily dismissed

Verdict- No less than ten of the fillies who ran in the 6 furlong trial for this two weeks ago reoppose here and the winner that day Wedding Ring again looks the best of those runners. However it may pay to side with the one credible new shooter in the field, Night Song for the John Gosden and William Buick combination. An impressive winner on debut, she was slightly underwhelming in a four runner conditions stakes at Kempton last time. However there is every chance she will be seen in a better light in this bigger field and she rates a confident enough selection. Of the rest Oxsana and Fashion Field finished in the places in the trial and look likely sorts to do so again here

1 Night Song
2 Wedding Ring
3 Fashion Field