230 Wednesday Goodwood Bet 365 Molecomb Stakes

                                                  The Molecomb Stakes

The first of the 3 big juvenile races at Glorious Goodwood comes in the form of the Molecomb Stakes. A group three over five furlongs it is often won by a quality juvenile speedball. This year looks an open heat with not one of the field owning a group victory so far

Ambiance- Mick Channon colt who is a half brother to the Hackwood Stakes winner Heeraat. Went off a very well backed 3/1 shot on debut in a traditionally strong Newbury Maiden but cut little ice finishing 9th. He has since proved that to be all wrong winning twice including at Listed level and finishing an excellent 4th to crack American Colt No Nay Never in the group 2 Norfolk stakes. Ran below that form in France last time behind the excellent filly Vorda and it may be his busy schedule is starting to take a toll. However the trainer likes to keep his juveniles busy and won the race last year with a similar type in Bungleinthejungle who was also making his 6th career start. Useful performer but enough negatives for me to take him on here

Anticipated- Another juvenile put in his place by Vorda at Maisons-Laffitte last week when finishing one place ahead of Ambiance in 5th. Always well regarded he won on debut at even money at Windsor before besting Justice Day under a canny Richard Hughes ride at Ascot, returning there for the Royal meeting when finishing a close up 3rd in the Windsor Castle. That was a muddling race, many formlines represented here, and on his run against Justice Day i couldn't have such a price discrepancy between the two. Respected but too short in the betting to be a play here

Brown Sugar- Ran a blinder on debut when 2nd as a unconsidered 40/1 shot behind the useful Jallotta before easily taking a Salisbury maiden by 5 lengths from a subsequent winner on second start. Was then stepped up in class taking in the group 2 July Stakes yet was only 10th beaten over 8 lengths. On the face of it that was a disappointing run but he pulled like a train early that day and Richard Hughes wasn't hard on him when his chance had gone. I would be willing to forgive that run and i think he may be a player at big odds in this

Justice Day- Likeable Colt from the David Elsworth stable who has 2 wins and 2 places from his 5 starts. Won in decent style on debut, had meritocracy behind, before an arguably unlucky 2nd to Anticipated next time. Went to Newmarket for an egg and spoon race which he duly won before heading north to Edinburgh for a valuable conditions race narrowly failing to give Sleeper King 3lbs. He was potentially inconvenienced by the draw in the Windsor Castle when only 9th, finishing 3rd of 13 in his group. The early 25/1 has been snapped up but may still be a touch of value at his current odds

Meritocracy- Last seen finishing down the field when top weight in the super sprint. Had previously shown decent form without suggesting he was up to this exalted level. His trainer may have had a renaissance with his juveniles this year but this one is unlikely to be adding to that record here

Sleeper King- very sharp juvenile from the in form Kevin Ryan stable. Traveled better than anything on debut over 6 furlongs when fading close home to finish 4th beaten 1.25 lengths by Coventry 2nd Parbold. Dropped to 5 furlongs next time he got up close home to deny Justice Day, again travelling best of all throughout. Led close home before fading late when 8th in the Windsor Palace. Every chance that this track will suit better than Ascot. A big player in this for his in form yard

Supplicant- runner up in the Windsor Palace when nabbed close home by an inspired Johnny Murtagh on Extortionist. May have been a 20/1 shot that day but there was no fluke about his run. A ready winner as favourite on debut he then ran in an extremely hot Beverley conditions race finishing 3rd beaten 1/2 a length. A massive drifter on course and poorly drawn he did well to finish on the heels of two very useful rivals that day. Ryan Moore takes over today and deserves his place at the head of the market

Majestic Alexander- well bred filly from the David Evans yard who won at Wolverhampton at the beginning of April and who has done connections proud ever since. A career best last time when third to Ambiance in a listed contest she will have to step forward again here if she is to trouble the principles

Reroute- Unexposed filly from the upwardly mobile Ed Walker yard. An impressive winner on debut at York when besting the useful Royal Mezyan she was sent to Ascot for the Queen Mary only 6 days later. Trainer admitted in the build up to this that he may have went to the well too soon and so her creditable 5th beaten under 3 lengths has the potential to be upgraded. Gets the fillies allowance here but likely to have to improve if she is to win


Verdict- An open renewal which probably lacks a superstar. Supplicant looks a worthy favourite based on his career to date and the upgrade in Jockey does his chance no harm at all. However there are a few horses with the potential to better than they have shown so far, chief among them Sleeper King who has traveled like a high quality horse in his 3 races to date. Goodwood may suit and it is possible that he will be able to find the improvement needed to go close here and at double figure odds he looks the value play. Of the rest i think that Brown Sugar and Justice Day may well outrun their respective odds and possibly grab a place on the podium

1 Sleeper King
2 Supplicant
3 Brown Sugar